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AT LAFCADIO HEARN MEMORIAL PARK OHKUBO TOKYO |
To think of the future in relation to the
present is essential to civilization. The
commonest workman in a civilized country
does this. Instead of spending all the money
he earns, as fast as he earns it, he will,
if an intelligent man, save a large part
of it as a provision against future want. This is the commonest kind of foresight.
The statesman represents a much higher form
of foresight. He thinks when opposing or
proposing a law, -- "What will be the
result of this law a hundred years after
I am dead?" But the philosopher carries
foresight much further. He asks : "What
will be the result of the present conditions
in a thousand years from now?" And he
thinks not merely about one country, but
about the whole human race.
In speaking to you about the Future of the
Orient, I wish to speak from the standpoint
of the Western philosopher, -- and therefore,
not about Japan alone, or the Far East alone,
but about the whole human race.
I must begin by saying that the future of
the Far East depends partly upon the action
of the Far West, -- though not altogether.
One thing, at least, is certain, -- that
the greatest changes which are to take place
in the Far East will be made by Western influence.
This influence is aggressive. But it is unavoidable.
It cannot cease for generations. Before we
think about the Orient in the future, let
us consider the Occident in the present.
The most remarkable fact connected with the
progress of Western industrial civilization
during this century has been the enormous
increase of Western nations. In 1801, the
population of England, or, rather, of all
Great Britain, was 16,345,646. In 1892, the
population was 37,787,953. If we look still
further back, the figures are, of course,
more startling. In Elizabeth's reign there
were 5,600,517 people in England and Wales;
in Queen Victoria's reign there are 29,001,018
(year 1892). But the figures of 1892(*1) do not include the many millions of Englishmen
in Canada, the United States, South America,
Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa
-- not to mention fifty other places. The
population of Germany when Gibbon wrote his
history was about 22,000,000: it is now 49,500,000.
The population of France was put at about
20,000,000: it was in 1893, 38,218,903. The
population of Italy was only ten millions:
it is now more than 30,000,000. That of Spain
was about 8,000,000: it is now 17,500,000.
The population of Russia (I only mean Russia in Europe) was only 12 millions: it is now eightyone
millions, without including Poland and Finland;
and the conquest of Russia has(*2) raised her population still higher,
-- more than l03 millions. To cut the matter
short, in the period of 70 years -- from
1719, -- the population of Europe doubled;
and in our own century has risen to a figure
enormously higher than doubling represents.
Furthermore the reader must remember that
the European races have given North America
a population of nearly 70,000,000, -- besides
peopling, in very recent times, Australia,
New Zealand, South Africa and other parts
of the world. Under English rule alone --
that is under the present English Queen,
-- there are nearly 344,000,000 of subjects.
Now what is the meaning of this immense growth of the Western races? In
the old Roman Empire the total population was probably scarcely more than
110,000,000; and both Hume and Gibbon thought that the population of Ancient
Europe in the time of Augustus exceeded that of the Europe of their own
day. But the population of Europe is now three times as large, and the
greatest increase has been in very recent times, -- in scarcely more
than a hundred years. What is its cause? What does it mean?
Its cause is certainly in part due to industrial
and scientific progress, and in part to improved
methods of supporting life and preserving
health. But no improvements in agriculture,
no hygienic discoveries, no scientific or
industrial inventions alone would of themselves fully explain it. Under
the Roman Empire, Europe probably contained
more people than the soil could support.
Today the population is three times as great,
and the soil certainly does not produce three
times as much food. As a matter of fact,
the West cannot now feed itself. Its population
increases simply because it has found means
of obtaining outside support. Its life is
artificial, -- not strictly natural. Probably
Russia only, -- (perhaps Scandinavia
also, though I doubt it ) -- can produce
food enough for her own population. The greater
part of Europe is fed by Russia and by nearly
all other countries in the world. North America,
India, Australia, Java, Canada, South America,
China, Japan, Persia, -- every part of the
globe sends food to Europe. The population
of London could not live one day without
help from other countries. The great fear
England feels of losing her colonies by war,
or her commerce by rivalry, is the fear of
starvation. Even Lord Tennyson in his Ballad
of "The Fleet" did not hesitate
to use the plain word "starve"
:
-- "When all men starve, the wild
mob's million feet
Will kick you from your place."
-- Certainly the death of tens of millions
would be the result if Europe were suddenly
deprived of the means of obtaining food from
other countries.
How is this food supply to be maintained?
By commerce, by fast steamers, by rapid communication.
Continually the population increases; and
continually faster ships are built, and new
commercial undertakings are begun, and new
colonies are established. The West is forced,
by her new necessities, to compel all countries
to help her to live. Already her industrial
civilization has spread round the world;
and the pressure of it is being felt today
on the shores of China and of Japan.
As population increases in the West, it tries
to relieve itself by emigration. But it cannot
emigrate fast enough to escape the result.
The result is increase of competition, which
means increased difficulty of living, which
explains the very progress that is at the
same time Western strength and Western weakness.
Men progress because they must, -- not because
they like the pain of struggle and of labour.
In countries where men can live without labour,
there is no progress at all. All these wonderful
inventions in science, in art, in industry,
-- the telegraphs that circle the world,
-- the countless railroads, -- the
applications of mathematics to the perfection
of machinery, -- the application of chemistry
to millions of new discoveries, -- are simply
the result of the necessity of living, --
that is, of getting something to eat. Under
all forms of progress, the motive power is
simply hunger. And this is the eternal law.
It is simply because of the necessity of
living that the Western races are striving
to spread themselves all over the world.
And they spread rapidly because in the present
century they discovered the means of spreading
rapidly. In other centuries they would have
starved to death at home.
Various natural obstacles they have found
in their way. They cannot people the Tropics,
because the climate kills them. But many
countries which they could people they have
depopulated. The native races disappeared
before them, -- the Indians from America,
the Maoris from various Pacific islands,
-- the Tasmanians from Tasmania, the black
Australians from Australia, -- even the Spanish
half-breeds from New Mexico and Texas. India,
of course, resists: the West cannot people
India; the climate protects her dark races.
But when Western industrialism reached the
Far East, -- China, -- its further advance
was opposed by something very different from
natural obstacles. It was opposed by an intelligence
of which the West had previously no suspicion.
To conquer China was almost impossible, --
and even, if possible, would have cost too
much. To disintegrate China, by obliging
her to adapt herself to Western manners and
customs and beliefs, was much more impossible.
China was a mass too enormous, too solid,
to be either broken or to be remodeled. China
resisted. It was evident that all the West
could hope from China was trade. Trade was
given, or rather forced; but Western merchants
found they were dealing with their
equals. Even Chinese trade could not be taken
from Chinese hands. It is still there. It
will always remain there. At a later day
the West discovered that the Chinese were
not simply equals in trade and commerce,
but superiors, -- and very dangerous rivals,
-- even in what is called the highest form
of financial cooperation.
If the Chinese had not been dangerous before,
it was simply because they had stayed at
home. But after the West forced China to
open her ports, the Chinese began to go to
other countries. They began to people the
Pacific Coast of North America and of South
America. They poured into the West Indies.
They emigrated to Australia and Java. They
built up the colony of Singapore -- one of
the most valuable of England's eastern settlements.
They threatened to fill up the East. Wise
men began to say that it would have been
much better to have left China alone.
America was the first country to take fright.
In California, it was found that no one could
compete with the Chinese. They absorbed commerce,
they monopolized trades, they drove labor-competitors
out of the market. There were revolutions,
riots, murders.
Gradually the Western States(*3) became afraid. A law was passed two
years ago to stop Chinese emigration. The
American people understood that in commerce
and industry they could not compete with
Chinese.
Australia did the same thing. It was found
that if the Chinese were not prevented from
settling in Australia, the English could
not live there. Australia protected herself
by laws excluding Chinese emigration.
In Java, the Dutch colonists took fright
in another way. They attacked the Chinese,
and killed more than 5,000. At present the
Chinese are allowed to settle in Java; but
under certain laws, -- and the Javanese race
is slowly disappearing in consequence. For
the Chinese can live in any climate, and
can conquer in any sort of industrial competition.
The climate of Java is unsuited to Europeans;
consequently the Dutch permit the Chinese
to settle.
How were the Chinese able to thus compete
with the West? Partly by their intelligence,
but much more by their extraordinary sobriety.
Being accustomed to live at least times ten
more cheaply than Western people, they possessed
an economical advantage that no superiority
in capital could overcome. Being unequalled
as workmen, they could not only do with their
hands any work that Western artisans could
do, but they could also do it for less than
half-the-cost.
What should happen then, were the Chinese
to employ Western industrial machinery and
Western scientific knowledge in their competition?
It would be a very serious thing for the
West. It would mean that Western commerce
would be driven out of the Orient. It would
mean even more than that. While Western population
was doubling and tripling and quadrupling,
and Western expansion was continuous, the
Orient had remained almost stationary. But,
when the West attempted to force its gates,
a dynamic power of inexhaustible and almost
inconceivable magnitude was set in motion.
The Orient also began to expand. If it adopts
the machinery of the West to help its expansion,
-- then the West will have to face such a
danger as was never even dreamed of fifty
years ago.
Very fortunately for the West, China moves
slowly. She has not yet adopted to any extent
the industrial methods and the machinery
of Western countries. She is only preparing
herself for war. Threatened by Russia she
found a friend in England. England is pledged
to help China against Russia. China is pledged
in return to help England to defend India
against Russia. English officers are teaching
the military arts of the West to China. Chinese
factories are already manufacturing the best
kind of rifles. The Chinese can call out
l,200,000 soldiers already; and when these
shall have all been armed and disciplined
like Western troops, no power dare attack
China. But it is quite certain that China
will eventually also adopt Western sciences
and industries. That will be the greatest
danger. For it is not by war that the future
of races will be decided. It is by industrial
and scientific competition.
The commercial sort of intelligence is not,
however, the highest. The highest is the
scientific intelligence. China has never
given any proof of capacity in this direction.
But another Oriental race has, -- Japan.
Japan has proven herself able to compete
with the West in the highest departments
of intellectual progress. I do not think
the Japanese are equal to the Chinese as
merchants. But they are in other respects
a race of far higher type. I do not wish
to be thought trying to flatter a national
sentiment; and when I say that Japan has
proven herself able to compete with the West
in the highest field of intellectual research,
I do not mean the present intellectual level
in Japan is as high as that in England or
France. It is not. But the successes achieved
abroad in Germany, in America, and elsewhere
by Japanese men of science have been quite
enough to prove that the highest capacity
is there. It may be still to a great extent
potential -- undeveloped; but its development
is a mere question of time. And the time
will not be long. Jointly, then, China and
Japan -- representing the Far East, have
shown themselves able to compete with the
West in commerce and also in the intellectual
battle of races.
But the ability is not the only point I wish
to dwell upon; -- the necessity is equally
important. Both China and Japan must compete with the West in order to defend
themselves. What will be the result?
The industrial expansion must continue on
both sides; and the populations of both Orient
and Occident must increase. The World can
support only a certain number of millions
-- perhaps between two and three thousand
millions; but the struggle must go on. And
as its intensity increases, the struggle
must be a struggle for the possession of
the Whole World. Then the weaker races must
give way. How give way? Disappear from the
face of the Earth. Which will give way, --
Far West or Far East?
It is a question of economy. Economy will
answer it.
When there is a struggle between two races,
and all the intelligence is on one side;
the intelligence conquers, of course -- destroys
or supplants the ignorant race. When the
struggle is between equally matched races,
the result may be a union. But when the two
races are equal as to intelligence, while
differing greatly in power of endurance and
in economical capacity, the more enduring
and economical race must win. When the Chinese
workman, for example, is able to do the same
work as the English workman, and also able
to live five times more cheaply, the English
artisan is driven out of the market. And
any race, however highly gifted, may be driven
out of the competition for life -- driven
out of the World, in short, -- by an equally
intelligent race able to live at a much lower
cost.
Imagine that you want to buy an engine, --
a steam-engine. You are shown two steam-engines,
-- each of the same horse-power. But one
engine burns twice as much coal as the other.
It costs twice as much to run it. Which engine
will you buy? Of course that which burns
the least coal.
The human body is, after all, an engine;
-- the fuel by which it runs, is food. We
have seen that all progress is caused by
the question of food. The difficulty of living,
-- of getting something to eat, -- is the
cause of all effort. Well, the Western body
may be compared to an engine of a certain
power; and the Eastern body to another. If
you imagine them able to do exactly the same
amount of work, -- their relative value must
be determined by the cost of their fuel.
Now an Englishman requires to live what would
support at least seven or eight Orientals.
What is the inference?
But this is only a trifling illustration.
The cost of life to any of the higher Western
races is four or five times at least what
it is to the races of the Far East, -- speaking
only of absolute necessities. If we speak, not of necessities only, but
of facts, -- the cost of life in the
West is twenty, thirty, fifty times greater
-- according to which Western country
we consider. And no race in the West could
live at all under the conditions according
to which the millions of the Far East live.
They would starve to death. Their necessities
are not merely the result of modern habit.
They are necessities of the race. Just as
you cannot feed a hawk on rice or a wolf
on straw, you can not keep Western men alive
upon Oriental food.
Food is the chief consideration. But it is
not the only one. Different races require
different comforts, -- different conditions.
Western races require besides costly nourishment,
costly comforts. They have always, in all
times, required them; they require what is
called "large living". Historians tell us how much
the condition of poor people has improved
in Europe since the middle ages. This is
true. But even in the middle ages, Europeans
could not have submitted to an Oriental mode
of life. The reason is not physiological
alone; it is psychological too. Deprived
of certain conditions essential to their
mental happiness, Occidentals pine away.
Population dwindles, and effort almost ceases.
In natural history, you have read about extinct
animals. There were wonderful animals once
on this planet, too strong to fear any enemies,
-- and too happily situated to have been
destroyed by either cold, heat, or drought.
It is quite certain some of these disappeared
simply because of the costliness
of their existence. The time came when the earth could not support them.
And so far as the body alone is concerned, men are liable to the fate of
animals. A race may become extinct simply because the cost of its living
is too high.
Assuredly in the future competition between
West and East, the races most patient, most
economical, most simple in their habits will
win. The costly races may totally disappear
as the result. Nature is a great economist.
She makes no mistakes. The fittest to survive
are those best able to live with her, and
to be content with a little. Such is the
law of the universe.
The present cost of a young man's education
in England is between 16,000 and 20,000 yen, -- in Japanese money. I need scarcely tell
you that the same education can be obtained
in Japan at much less than half. In the mere
question of education, the Orient will be
a serious competitor of the West.
In fine, I venture to express my firm belief
that the poverty of Japan is her strength.
Riches may be, in the future, a source of
weakness. If you do not like the word "poverty",
remember that the poorest country in Europe
is Russia; and that Russia is nevertheless
so strong that all Germany and Austria and
Italy are united merely to protect themselves
against her, and that the Whole World is
afraid of her. Her poverty will not prevent
her from mounting six millions of cavalry
whenever she desires. Nor is there any reason
why, in the future, the poverty of Japan
should prevent her from being able to call
out to defend her, at least three millions
of hardy soldiers.
I believe also that the future is for the
Far East -- not for the Far West. At least
I believe so as far as China is concerned.
In the case of Japan, I think, there is a
possible danger, -- the danger of abandoning
the old, simple, healthy, natural, sober,
honest way of living. I think Japan will
be strong as long as she preserves her simplicity.
I think she will become weak if she adopts
imported ideas of luxury. The wise men of
the Far East, -- Confucius and Mencius and
the Founder of the Buddhist faith, -- have
one and all preached the importance to national
strength and happiness, of avoiding luxury
and of being content with what is necessary
for common comfort and for intellectual enjoyment.
Their ideas are also those of the Western
thinkers of today.
-- Well, in making these remarks to you,
-- representing not merely my own ideas,
but those of wiser and better men than I
can ever be, -- I thought of what has been
called "the Kyushu Spirit". I have
heard that simplicity of manners and honesty
of life were from ancient time the virtues
of Kumamoto. If this be so, then I would
conclude by saying that I think the future
greatness of Japan will depend on the preservation
of that Kyushu or Kumamoto spirit, -- the
love of what is plain and good and simple,
and the hatred of useless luxury and extravagance
in life.
(*1) Written 1893 in original. |
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